Democrats are growing increasingly concerned about the upcoming election and the potential impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on President Joe Biden’s campaign. 

Kennedy, a controversial figure and scion of one of America’s most prominent political families, switched from the Democratic Party to an independent affiliation last year. While he has garnered significant support in various surveys, both Democrats and Republicans agree that Kennedy poses more of a threat to Biden than to the leading Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump.

However, given the history of independent candidates, it remains unclear if Kennedy’s name will appear on enough ballots to make a significant impact.

With the election’s first contests just days away and more state ballot deadlines soon, both major parties continue to closely monitor Kennedy’s candidacy. Although he has secured a spot on the Utah ballot and is expected to be on the ballot in North Carolina, doubts persist about his ability to qualify in all 50 states and the District of Columbia as the qualification process is expensive, complicated and varies greatly from state to state.

Kennedy has strategically positioned himself to appeal to conservative voters with his promotion of anti-vaccine rhetoric. He has also touched on conspiracy theories and employed campaign tactics commonly favored by the GOP, such as a heavy reliance on substantial outside spending to bolster his bid. 

The American Values 2024 PAC, partially funded by Republican mega-donor Timothy Mellon, has pledged to spend over $15 million across swing states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, in addition to solidly blue states such as New York and California, where Kennedy’s supporters believe he can be competitive.

Kennedy’s recent appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference and his criticism of the decision to remove Trump from the Colorado ballot due to his involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots have further aligned him with right-wing ideologies. 

In a Fox News interview, Kennedy condemned the removal of Trump from ballots with the argument that it deprived voters of a choice. While Kennedy stated that he is not a fan of Trump, he emphasized the importance of freedom of choice for the American people.

While Kennedy consistently polls in double digits nationally, recent surveys suggest he draws more support from Trump than Biden among registered voters when asked about a hypothetical rematch. However, these polls assume that Kennedy will appear on enough ballots to provide voters with an alternative to the “lesser of two evils” narrative that has surrounded Biden and Trump.

While few in Biden’s circle have commented publicly on Kennedy’s candidacy, some activists believe that if Kennedy qualifies in critical states, he could undermine Biden’s campaign. Although Biden won the popular vote by seven million votes, a shift of just 40,000 votes in four states would have reelected Trump.

Some Republican strategists are optimistic that Kennedy could make inroads in states where Biden is unpopular, such as Michigan, a state targeted by the American Values PAC.

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