Former CDC Director Robert Redfield Predicts Bird Flu Pandemic: ‘It’s Not A Question Of If’

A bird flu pandemic is inevitable – and it’s only a matter of time before it strikes, according to former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield. 

Redfield’s comments come amid mounting concerns over the detection of the virus in dozens of cattle herds across the United States and the first reported human death in Mexico.

In a recent interview with NewsNation, Redfield expressed his belief that a bird flu pandemic is a high likely. “I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time,” he said. “It’s not a question of if; it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.” He emphasized the significant mortality rate associated with the virus, with an estimation of a mortality rate of “somewhere between 25 and 50 percent,” in contrast to the 0.6 percent death rate observed in the Covid-19 pandemic.

In late May, the CDC reported the third human case of the virus since March, with all three cases involving farmworkers and lacking any association with one another. Symptoms have included a cough without fever and pink eye, but there is currently no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Redfield explained that the key to the virus’s ability to spread from human to human lies in the change of five specific amino acids in a critical receptor. Once the virus acquires this capacity, the pandemic could be unleashed. Redfield stated, “That’s when you’re going to have the pandemic. And as I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”

Detecting the virus in cattle herds across the country has further heightened the concern, as the virus’s ability to evolve from pigs to humans poses a significant threat. Redfield also warned that there is a greater risk of the disease being lab-grown, as the “recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.”

The CDC currently tracks wastewater treatment sites to monitor the spread of the virus. Still, the agency has stated that the general public’s risk of contracting the virus remains low at present.